Analysis of Spatiotemporal Transmission Characteristics of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Mainland China

In view of the rapid spread of African swine fever in Mainland China from 2018 to 2019, we used spatiotemporal statistical analysis methods to study the spatiotemporal transmission features of African swine fever. The results reveal that the hot spots of African swine fever were concentrated in some cities in Northeast and Southwest China. Seven spatiotemporal clusters of African swine fever were identified, and the most likely spatiotemporal cluster was located in the Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture of QianNan in Guizhou Province, and the cluster date was from 19 June to 25 June 2019. The first secondary cluster covered five cities (Shenyang, Yingkou, Panjin, Anshan, and Liaoyang) in Liaoning Province from 1 August to 10 October 2018. In addition, from the global and local transmission direction and speed of African swine fever in Mainland China, the spatial transmission speed of ASF was found to be slow from August to October 2018, and fast from February to March 2019. Lastly, the global and local isolation and exposure of sites infected with ASF were calculated in Mainland China to reveal the infection risk of different susceptible sites and time periods. [ FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the effectiveness of the intervention measures of COVID-19 in China based on dynamical method.

Normalized interventions were implemented in different cities in China to contain the outbreak of COVID-19 before December 2022. However, the differences in the intensity and timeliness of the implementations lead to differences in final size of the infections. Taking the outbreak of COVID-19 in three representative cities Xi'an, Zhengzhou and Yuzhou in January 2022, as examples, we develop a compartmental model to describe the spread of novel coronavirus and implementation of interventions to assess concretely the effectiveness of Chinese interventions and explore their impact on epidemic patterns. After applying reported human confirmed cases to verify the rationality of the model, we apply the model to speculate transmission trend and length of concealed period at the initial spread phase of the epidemic (they are estimated as 10.5, 7.8, 8.2 days, respectively), to estimate the range of basic reproduction number (2.9, 0.7, 1.6), and to define two indexes (transmission rate v t and controlled rate v c ) to evaluate the overall effect of the interventions. It is shown that for Zhengzhou, v c is always more than v t with regular interventions, and Xi'an take 8 days to achieve v c  > v t twice as long as Yuzhou, which can interpret the fact that the epidemic situation in Xi'an was more severe. By carrying out parameter values, it is concluded that in the early stage, strengthening the precision of close contact tracking and frequency of large-scale nucleic acid testing of non-quarantined population are the most effective on controlling the outbreaks and reducing final size. And, if the close contact tracking strategy is sufficiently implemented, at the late stage large-scale nucleic acid testing of non-quarantined population is not essential.

Transmission characteristic and dynamic analysis of COVID-19 on contact network with Tianjin city in China.

The outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has had a profound impact on people's lives around the world, and the spread of COVID-19 between individuals were mainly caused by contact transmission of the social networks. In order to analyze the network transmission of COVID-19, we constructed a case contact network using available contact data of 136 early diagnosed cases in Tianjin. Based on the constructed case contact network, the structural characteristics of the network were first analyzed, and then the centrality of the nodes was analyzed to find the key nodes. In addition, since the constructed network may contain missing edges and false edges, link prediction algorithms were used to reconstruct the network. Finally, to understand the spread of COVID-19 in the network, an individual-based susceptible-latent-exposed-infected-recover (SLEIR) model is established and simulated in the network. The results showed that the disease peak scale caused by the node with the highest centrality is larger, and reducing the contact infection rate of the infected person during the incubation period has a greater impact on the peak disease scale.

Multidimensional racism classification during COVID-19: stigmatization, offensiveness, blame, and exclusion.

Transcending the binary categorization of racist texts, our study takes cues from social science theories to develop a multidimensional model for racism detection, namely stigmatization, offensiveness, blame, and exclusion. With the aid of BERT and topic modelling, this categorical detection enables insights into the underlying subtlety of racist discussion on digital platforms during COVID-19. Our study contributes to enriching the scholarly discussion on deviant racist behaviours on social media. First, a stage-wise analysis is applied to capture the dynamics of the topic changes across the early stages of COVID-19 which transformed from a domestic epidemic to an international public health emergency and later to a global pandemic. Furthermore, mapping this trend enables a more accurate prediction of public opinion evolvement concerning racism in the offline world, and meanwhile, the enactment of specified intervention strategies to combat the upsurge of racism during the global public health crisis like COVID-19. In addition, this interdisciplinary research also points out a direction for future studies on social network analysis and mining. Integration of social science perspectives into the development of computational methods provides insights into more accurate data detection and analytics.

Extending the Ring Theory of Personhood to the Care of Dying Patients in Intensive Care Units.

It is evident, in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic that has physicians confronting death and dying at unprecedented levels along with growing data suggesting that physicians who care for dying patients face complex emotional, psychological and behavioural effects, that there is a need for their better understanding and the implementation of supportive measures. Taking into account data positing that effects of caring for dying patients may impact a physician's concept of personhood, or "what makes you, 'you'", we adopt Radha Krishna's Ring Theory of Personhood (RToP) to scrutinise the experiences of physicians working in intensive care units (ICU) using a fictional scenario that was inspired by real events. The impact of death and dying, its catalysts, internal constituents, external factors, dyssynchrony, and buffers, specific to ICU physicians, were identified and explored. Such a framework allows for ramifications to be considered holistically and facilitates the curation of strategies for conflict resolution. This evaluation of the RToP acknowledges the experience and wide-ranging effects it has on ICU physicians. As such, our findings provide insight into their specific needs and highlight the importance of support on a personal and organisational level. Although further research needs to be conducted, the RToP could serve as the basis for a longitudinal assessment tool supported by the use of portfolios or mentorship due to their provision of personalised, appropriate, specific, timely, accessible and long-term support.

Optimal Breeding Strategy for Livestock with a Dynamic Price

China’s livestock output has been growing, but domestic livestock products such as beef, mutton and pork have been unable to meet domestic consumers’ demands. The imbalance between supply and demand causes unstable livestock prices and affects profits on livestock. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to provide the optimal breeding strategy for livestock farmers to maximize profits and adjust the balance between supply and demand. Firstly, when the price changes, livestock farmers will respond in two ways: by not adjusting the scale of livestock with the price or adjusting the scale with the price. Therefore, combining the model of price and the behavior of livestock farmers, two livestock breeding models were established. Secondly, we proposed four optimal breeding strategies based on the previously studied models and the main research method is Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. Optimal breeding strategies are achieved by controlling the growth and output of livestock. Further, their existence was verified. Finally, we simulated two situations and found the most suitable strategy for both situations by comparing profits of four strategies. From that, we obtained several conclusions: The optimal strategy under constant prices is not always reasonable. The effect of price on livestock can promote a faster balance. To get more profits, the livestock farmers should adjust the farm’s productivity reasonably. It is necessary to calculate the optimal strategy results under different behaviors.

Fakery as a process of negotiation: understanding the information assessment and sharing behaviours of the marginalized elderly on social media: Journal of Media & Cultural Studies

Transcending the binary of misinformation and truth, this study proposes a new theoretical approach to comprehend fakery as a negotiation process encompassing information access, exploration and comparison, and sharing. Grounded in the theory of intersectionality, this approach enables the capturing of dynamics embodied in this process which is shaped by the intersectional forces at the individual, digital, social, and national levels. Through this approach, this study gives voice to the largely underrepresented group of low-income female elder adults in China, mapping their negotiation concerning the definition of fakery in COVID-19 at the interplay between structural constraints and agentic response. On the one hand, the intersections of cognitive declines, gender inequalities, socio-economic restrictions, and information surveillance and control, restrain their understanding of the ongoing situation to a partial landscape. On the other hand, they are engaged in the enactment of contextualized strategies to develop an increasingly critical perspective for news assessment and integrate the social and emotional needs to the decision-making processes of information-sharing.

Modeling the early transmission of COVID-19 in New York and San Francisco using a pairwise network model.

Classical epidemiological models assume mass action. However, this assumption is violated when interactions are not random. With the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and resulting shelter in place social distancing directives, mass action models must be modified to account for limited social interactions. In this paper we apply a pairwise network model with moment closure to study the early transmission of COVID-19 in New York and San Francisco and to investigate the factors determining the severity and duration of outbreak in these two cities. In particular, we consider the role of population density, transmission rates and social distancing on the disease dynamics and outcomes. Sensitivity analysis shows that there is a strongly negative correlation between the clustering coefficient in the pairwise model and the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number. The shelter in place policy makes the clustering coefficient increase thereby reducing the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number. By switching population densities in New York and San Francisco we demonstrate how the outbreak would progress if New York had the same density as San Francisco and vice-versa. The results underscore the crucial role that population density has in the epidemic outcomes. We also show that under the assumption of no further changes in policy or transmission dynamics not lifting the shelter in place policy would have little effect on final outbreak size in New York, but would reduce the final size in San Francisco by 97%.

Extending the Ring Theory of Personhood to the Care of Dying Patients in Intensive Care Units

It is evident, in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic that has physicians confronting death and dying at unprecedented levels along with growing data suggesting that physicians who care for dying patients face complex emotional, psychological and behavioural effects, that there is a need for their better understanding and the implementation of supportive measures. Taking into account data positing that effects of caring for dying patients may impact a physician’s concept of personhood, or “what makes you, ‘you’”, we adopt Radha Krishna’s Ring Theory of Personhood (RToP) to scrutinise the experiences of physicians working in intensive care units (ICU) using a fictional scenario that was inspired by real events. The impact of death and dying, its catalysts, internal constituents, external factors, dyssynchrony, and buffers, specific to ICU physicians, were identified and explored. Such a framework allows for ramifications to be considered holistically and facilitates the curation of strategies for conflict resolution. This evaluation of the RToP acknowledges the experience and wide-ranging effects it has on ICU physicians. As such, our findings provide insight into their specific needs and highlight the importance of support on a personal and organisational level. Although further research needs to be conducted, the RToP could serve as the basis for a longitudinal assessment tool supported by the use of portfolios or mentorship due to their provision of personalised, appropriate, specific, timely, accessible and long-term support.

The impact of caring for dying patients in intensive care units on a physician's personhood: a systematic scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Supporting physicians in Intensive Care Units (ICU)s as they face dying patients at unprecedented levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic is critical. Amidst a dearth of such data and guided by evidence that nurses in ICUs experience personal, professional and existential issues in similar conditions, a systematic scoping review (SSR) is proposed to evaluate prevailing accounts of physicians facing dying patients in ICUs through the lens of Personhood. Such data would enhance understanding and guide the provision of better support for ICU physicians. METHODS: An SSR adopts the Systematic Evidenced Based Approach (SEBA) to map prevailing accounts of caring for dying patients in ICUs. To enhance the transparency and reproducibility of this process, concurrent and independent use of tabulated summaries, thematic analysis and directed content analysis (Split Approach) is adopted. RESULTS: Eight thousand three hundred fifty-eight abstracts were reviewed from four databases, 474 full-text articles were evaluated, 58 articles were included, and the Split Approach revealed six categories/themes centered around the Innate, Individual, Relational and Societal Rings of Personhood, conflicts in providing end of life care and coping mechanisms employed. CONCLUSION: This SSR suggests that caring for dying patients in ICU impacts how physicians view their personhood. To resolve conflicts within individual concepts of personhood, physicians use prioritization, reframing and rely on accessible, personalized support from colleagues to steer coping strategies. An adapted form of the Ring Theory of Personhood is proposed to direct timely personalized, appropriate and holistic support.

Analysis of COVID-19 transmission in Shanxi Province with discrete time imported cases.

Since December 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus pneumonia (WHO named COVID-19) swept across China. In Shanxi Province, the cumulative confirmed cases finally reached 133 since the first confirmed case appeared on January 22, 2020, and most of which were imported cases from Hubei Province. Reasons for this ongoing surge in Shanxi province, both imported and autochthonous infected cases, are currently unclear and demand urgent investigation. In this paper, we developed a SEIQR difference-equation model of COVID-19 that took into account the transmission with discrete time imported cases, to perform assessment and risk analysis. Our findings suggest that if the lock-down date in Wuhan is earlier, the infectious cases are fewer. Moreover, we reveal the effects of city lock-down date on the final scale of cases: if the date is advanced two days, the cases may decrease one half (67, 95% CI: 66-68); if the date is delayed for two days, the cases may reach about 196 (95% CI: 193-199). Our investigation model could be potentially helpful to study the transmission of COVID-19, in other provinces of China except Hubei. Especially, the method may also be used in countries with the first confirmed case is imported.